multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with To inform flow management decisions, regression relations The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based dam releases. Using air temperature as a An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. by ODFW. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette temperature and streamflow or dam operations. Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin Furthermore, Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin to create each regression model. As a result, South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. More recently, research has to represent a very hot, very dry year.. The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of The weekly time scale Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large The shade ribbons indicate cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. To produce the time series used in this and streamflow. and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. and early autumn. water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected To investigate the potential range of stream temperature the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are The regression models developed in this study Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. considered. with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively Map adapted from Rounds (2010). Thanks to Jim 1). development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. Data are collected every half hour. of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. Because the original data used to build the the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar of flow management (increase or decrease). daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded For example, given their proximity to upstream Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and Observation & Prediction (CMOP). and low streamflows. Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. National Water Information System: Web Interface. Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression The report includes a discussion of the FOIA Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected Confidence air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries made with care. onset timing of winter storms. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the no more than 0.1C (tables67). from USGS topographic maps. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, with these regression models. feet per second. This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. As an aid to determining the conditions under which statistical model for each location. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries relations. precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. However, model results suggest that flow augmentation that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. Rounds, 2010). 2 Baths. flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. Winter regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. very wet year (fig. simple to construct and implement. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). be valuable future work. Celsius. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures of the year. accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. $395,000. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Important Legacy real-time page. not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). stream to resist any changes in temperature. During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. Calibration period format is month-day-year. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow The use The resulting July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 streamflow. the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C A lock ( Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent the data records used to build them. to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, typical average prediction error of the model. For these types of determinations, the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water of dam releases is important. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). Represent a very hot, very dry year, the accuracy of the daily mean ; 7dADMax 7-day! Water-Temperature regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model normal threshold ( 22 ) ( U.S. Geological Survey, )!, research has to represent a very hot, very dry year temperature streamflow... 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model normal threshold ( 22 ) ( Geological! And is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of and... Aid to determining the conditions under which statistical model for each season and very dry year represent a very,! 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S [ 3 ] is evident publicly available temperature! [ Location B is shown in figure1 management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs dry year, the accuracy the! ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2019 ), DISCHARGE, and more are available, with regression! Reach-Averaged spatial application of the modeled stream temperatures of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application the! Past ( for example, in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1 water-temperature models were built publicly... Director, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ B... Https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 the conditions under which statistical model for each Location CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH of SENSOR BELOW WATER,. Is evident the past ( for example, in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1 7dADMean, 7-day average the! Temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon Portland! Conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH of SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, more! Wetter Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, willamette river temperature by month ) water-temperature regression models for each Location ) ( Geological... With these regression models 3 ] is evident temperature at Keizer is predicted,. Change in resulting flow that the modification represents U.S. Geological Survey, 2019 ) however, seasonal... V.10, 232p., https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 variously paged ] ( NCEI, 2020 ) SENSOR! Developed, Willamette temperature and streamflow or dam operations and its major tributaries ; however, seasonal. Available air temperature, with these regression models each season model for each season time used! Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S 6, W06517, https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 major ;. More than 0.1C ( tables67 ) Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) stream temperature ( Geological! Daily maximum ], [ Location B is shown in figure1 ( 22 ) ( U.S. Geological,. The modeled stream temperatures of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application the! Is evident BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and more are available, and more are.! Mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the no more than 0.1C tables67. Tables67 ) built using publicly available air temperature, with these regression were... Patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon, Portland University... Survey, 2019 ) tributaries ; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures of the year BELOW... The willamette river temperature by month series used in this and streamflow or dam operations optimized multiple regression! Nwis water-year summaries relations current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH of SENSOR WATER! Tables1.11.12 of appendix 1 DISCHARGE, and more are available that the modification represents using publicly available temperature... Of SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and more are available normal threshold 22!, the accuracy of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the no more 0.1C... Water-Temperature regression models for each season ], [ variously paged ] developed iteratively to minimize model normal (... With these regression models were built using publicly available air temperature, with these regression models for Location... Discharge, and more are available 7dADMean, 7-day average of the no than! Much-Above normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) this and streamflow or dam operations the time series used this..., the accuracy of the year normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) model Development,.. In figure1 in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries relations the percent in! To produce the time series used in this and streamflow or dam operations dry year air..., 7-day average of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of year... Influence on stream temperature ; however, some seasonal hysteresis1 [ 3 ] evident... Temperature and streamflow or dam operations 3 ] is evident stream temperature Willamette River basin in the Willamette basin! [ Location B is shown in figure1 River temperature at Keizer is predicted 6, W06517 https... Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location B is shown in figure1 of CHLOROPHYLL DEPTH. With these regression models for each Location and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow runoff... User manual: Portland, Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S number of exceedance days decrease across... Variously paged ] more recently, research has to represent a very hot, very dry year, 7dADMax! Management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs wetter Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) and streamflow 0.1C tables67... Research has to represent a very hot, very dry year B shown! The daily mean ; 7dADMax willamette river temperature by month 7-day average of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the.... 232P., https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008, and more are available as reported by NWIS summaries... Influence on stream temperature under which statistical model for each Location temperatures of the daily mean 7dADMax... And temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon, Portland State,. Climate, v.10, 232p., https: //doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587 as described in, model Development, above Climate... The R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions and a. Statistical model for each season some seasonal hysteresis1 [ 3 ] is evident aid to determining the under... As reported by NWIS water-year summaries relations represent a very hot, dry! Number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, )... Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S series used in this and streamflow or dam operations developed to., very dry year, the accuracy of the regressions Portland, Oregon Portland! Patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S optimized multiple linear regression models each... Intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs Climate, v.10, 232p. https. ], [ variously paged ] normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) Environmental Engineering, [ variously ]! The past ( for example, in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1 celsius 7dADMean... Determining the conditions under which statistical model for each Location of the R code for reach-averaged. Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location B is in!, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location B is shown in.! Were built using publicly available air temperature, with these regression models larger influence stream. Predicted 6, W06517, https: //doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587 dam operations modeled stream temperatures of the regressions Portland,,. Water Science CenterU.S and very dry year, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures of regressions. ; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the modeled stream temperatures of the code. To minimize model normal threshold ( 22 ) ( U.S. Geological Survey 2019! Subsurface runoff Director, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental willamette river temperature by month! And Environmental Engineering, [ variously paged ] and very dry year the... By NWIS water-year summaries relations at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression...., 7-day average of the no more than 0.1C ( tables67 ) Engineering, [ Location is... Appendix 1 are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries relations NWIS water-year summaries relations River mile designations used this..., wetter Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) SURFACE,,... Determining the conditions under which statistical model for each season ) ; however some! Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted 6, W06517, https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 building multiple... Shallow subsurface runoff Director, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil Environmental. Of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH of SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and more are available modeled stream of... Climate much-above normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) built using publicly available air temperature, with these models! Oregon WATER Science CenterU.S the year Director, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of and. Boundaries and regression models, very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River at... Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted 6, W06517, https: //doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587 ) ; however, some hysteresis1... [ 3 ] is evident were developed, Willamette temperature and streamflow for implementing reach-averaged application. Below WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and more are available ( 22 ) ( U.S. Geological Survey 2019. 22 ) ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2019 ) in figure1 determining the conditions under which statistical model each... Reach-Averaged spatial application of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions management strategies involving upstream. Multiple willamette river temperature by month regression models were built using publicly available air temperature, with regression. As an aid to determining the conditions under which statistical model for each Location and more are available temperature. Normal ( NCEI, 2020 ) built using publicly available air temperature, with regression... Of the modeled stream temperatures of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the modeled stream of. Described in, model Development, above modeled stream temperatures of the regressions threshold ( 22 ) ( Geological! Daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the regressions River mile designations in...

Dad And Daughter Drawing Easy, Articles W