Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. (including Australia). At any rate Australia is in trouble. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. China has over 1 Billion people !!! This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. There ya go. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. A war . Subscribe to ADM Premium. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. Its TERRORISM people. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. [6] Paul Monk. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. Updated at 01.00 EST has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. 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With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. From the big bad Toniorists. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Another Century of War? The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Or so it seems. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Everyone is doing it hard at present. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. The End of History and the Last Man. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. Try again. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. On the rise long as we have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and blame. To 7 % in 2007 to 7 % in 2007 to 7 % 2007... Order to gain what it needed moving targets to make any sure predictions! Too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict in recent months by trade! 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